# Tech Reports

## ULCS-02-007

### Chance Discovery and Scenario Analysis

Peter McBurney and Simon Parsons

### Abstract

Scenario analysis is often used to identify possible chance events. However, no formal, computational theory yet exists for scenario analysis. In this paper, we commence development of such a theory by defining a scenario in an argumentation context, and by considering the question of when two scenarios are the same.

Keywords: Argumentation, Chance discovery, Ensembles, Forecasting, Scenarios.

[Full Paper]